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Programme Business Case FAQs
What is the Programme Business Case?
The Programme Business Case (PBC) is the second phase of the business case process. The PBC is the time for considering ideas for the future on how to solve the two transport problems identified by the investigation to date. The PBC does not present, analyse, or decide on detailed solutions or roading options; this happens later during the next two investigation phases. The PBC considers all the possible solutions that could address the problems outlined in the PBC. The outcome expected from the PBC public engagement is to arrive at a preferred programme of options that will solve the transport problems identified in the investigation.
What is the Programme Business Case?
The Programme Business Case (PBC) is the second phase of the business case process. The PBC is the time for considering ideas for the future on how to solve the two transport problems identified by the investigation to date. The PBC does not present, analyse, or decide on detailed solutions or roading options; this happens later during the next two investigation phases. The PBC considers all the possible solutions that could address the problems outlined in the PBC. The outcome expected from the PBC public engagement is to arrive at a preferred programme of options that will solve the transport problems identified in the investigation.
What have we done to date?
We completed the Strategic Case in November 2015. The Strategic Case was the first phase of the NSLI and was completed in November 2015. Its purpose was to identify problems with the State Highway system between Haven Road Roundabout and Annesbrook Roundabout and determine if they are substantial enough to justify further investigation. Since then we have commenced the first part of the PBC. Working with key stakeholders we have refined the problems and benefits, determined SMART investment objectives, and identified a mix of options that could solve the transport problems. We have developed further Rocks Road walk/cycling options and completed some transport modelling to gain a better understanding of how different growth scenarios will impact on transport.
What are the problems and benefits?
While transport problems were identified in the Strategic Case, the PBC has refined these and they are:
- CONGESTION: The form and function of Nelson’s two arterial corridors results in congestion and delays, and
- ACCESSIBILITY: Substandard infrastructure on Rocks Road, which is part of the Coastal Path, is constraining growth in walking and cycling activities.
Congestion causes travel delays for motorists on the city’s two arterial routes, and the poor infrastructure on Rocks Road limits accessibility for pedestrians and cyclists, making these travel options less attractive.
The benefits we want to achieve by addressing these problems are:
- Reduced journey times.
- Improved safety for walking and cycling modes of travel.
- Improved tourism, active transport and recreational activities on Rocks Rd.
What are the Investment Objectives?
The investment objectives that will be used to help assess and determine the PBC’s preferred programme are:
- Decrease peak hour travel times
Target: Travel times on the two arterials no worse than 2015 for the next 40 years.
- Improve peak hour available capacity to move people and goods
Target: The volume to available capacity ratio on the two arterials will be better than 80% for the years into the future.
- Decrease walking and cycling crash numbers
Target: Achieve a continuous decline in death and serious injury walking and cycling crashes.
- Increase walking and cycling numbers on Rocks Road
Target: Double current daily walking and cycling numbers within five years after implementing an option; thereafter the growth rate in walking and cycling numbers is greater than elsewhere in Nelson.
What will the demands on the transport network look like in the future?
Nelson’s population is expected to grow, which means the transport network in and around the city will be affected. With data collected to date, we know that congestion is causing travel time delays during the peak period on the two arterials. The figures below (from NSLI PBC draft for public engagement, Appendix E) indicate average 15min travel time delays in the peak periods on SH6 range between 2 and 4.5 minutes, and between 2 and 12 minutes on Waimea Rd.
Transport modelling has been undertaken to replicate current travel demand and movement on the transport network, and see how that will change over the next 20 years. A revised medium growth scenario was added to better reflect updated Stats NZ household occupancy forecasts, whereas the original medium is based on significantly higher occupancy rates determined by Rationale consultants for NCC. The revised medium therefore has a greater number of households for the same population forecast.
There are a number of factors that could affect these scenarios, which will be considered during the development of the PBC. These are:
- Factors affecting demand, eg. changes in land use, job numbers increase at a faster rate than currently envisaged.
- Factors that affect supply, eg. road space availability, Richmond becomes a significant regional hub.
- Factors that affect the cost of travel, eg. higher travel costs to individuals, cheaper travel costs to individuals through vehicle technology changes.
Can you tell me more about the transport modelling?
The Nelson-Tasman Transportation Model is a specialist forecasting tool owned by the NZ Transport Agency, NCC and TDC, which is used to support transportation planning in the region. The model comprises a series of mathematical algorithms which determine and forecast the number of trips on the transportation network, the trip origins and destinations, transport modes used (including public and active transport) and routes used by light and heavy vehicles around the network. The transport model requires a selection of inputs and is informed by the most up-to-date local knowledge. This includes:
- the road network, including intersection configurations and operation,
- the public transport network, including fares, frequency and patronage,
- land use data including the number of households and persons living and working in each part of the study area,
- Additional local knowledge including the location and size of schools, tertiary education centres and other key activities such as the airport, seaport and hospital,
- Survey data including traffic counts at numerous locations throughout the study area, counts for each turning movement at busy intersections and travel times and speeds on key corridors,
- Other supporting travel survey data to understand trip generation behaviours in New Zealand.
The ‘medium growth’ future model includes planned transport infrastructure and residential and commercial development agreed with NCC and TDC planning staff. In doing so, it reflects the growth expectations of local government over the next 20 years. Uncertainty in growth projections is addressed through sensitivity testing for low, medium and high growth scenarios.
What confidence can we have in the model?
The model has been developed according to industry best practice and follows the Transport Agency’s Transport Model Development Guidelines. Current modelled traffic volumes at key intersections and along key corridors are validated to closely match surveyed vehicle counts, and modelled travel times and speeds on the network are validated to match data collected from the local Bluetooth network. Other key traffic indicators that have been carefully validated to replicate survey data include public transport patronage, vehicle occupancy rates, trip lengths and the origins and destinations of trips across the road network. The model development, validation and forecasting capabilities have been peer reviewed by an industry expert who is independent of the modelling team and has approved the model as fit for purpose.
Why are we being asked to provide feedback on the Rocks Road Walking and Cycling Investigation as part of engagement on the NSLI PBC?
As part of our engagement we are providing an update on the Rocks Road Walking and Cycling Investigation and asking for your feedback on which option(s) you feel may work best with the approaches proposed for the NSLI. It is important that decisions on these two projects are informed by one another.
Four options have been identified. They are:
1. Minor Improvements. This option includes committed improvements identified by the NZ Transport Agency and Nelson City Council, such as resurfacing work to the road and footpath. It also involves incremental improvements to existing on-road facilities and the footpath. There is no widening of the seabed, the existing footpath, or cycle facilities. $4.9 Million
2. Safety enhancements with reduced lane widths. This includes the improvements outlined in Option 1 above, and creates additional cycle and footpath width through narrowing the traffic lanes to 3m. Please note, this option can only be pursued if the state highway is relocated (i.e. Rocks Road becomes a local road). $8.2 Million
3. On–road cycle lanes in both directions, shared path and reduced parking. This option involves widening the on-road cycle lanes in both directions and creating a 2.9m shared walking and cycling path on the seaward side. Parking between Victoria Road and Richardson Street would be removed. There would be significant seawall widening. $21.3 Million
4. On-road cycle lanes and shared path. This option involves widening on-road cycle lanes in both directions and creating a 2.9m shared walking and cycling path on the seaward side as in Option 3 above. Parking between Victoria Road and Richardson Street would be kept. This will require significant seawall widening. $25.1 Million
Were there any other options considered for the Rocks Road Walking and Cycling Investigation?
A Do Minimum Option had been identified, which included work that was already committed for funding and construction. These would form the basis of any work in the four options above and was therefore not included as something for feedback purposes. A variation of another option had also been identified and was discounted following earlier feedback on the project.
Has feedback from the July 2014 Rocks Rd engagement been considered?
The feedback report (refer references section of the project website) summaries the feedback received in July 2014. Key matters that were raised and have been considered in the SH6 Rocks Rd walk/cycle facility options update report include:-
- retention of residential parking between Victoria Road and Richardson Street,
- residential access manoeuvre space, and
- minimum emergency service vehicle width.
How will public feedback be used from engagement on the PBC?
Community engagement is an important part of our work to improve Nelson’s transport network. This will inform the development of a preferred approach, which could be one of the three identified, or a new approach based on proposals identified through public feedback.
Will there be further opportunities to be involved in the project?
Once a preferred approach has been confirmed, there will be further opportunities to give your feedback if the NSLI proceeds to the next stage. This could happen later this year, depending on the outcomes of the PBC.
What are the next steps?
After the feedback deadline of 24 April, the NSLI project team will summarise your feedback into a report that we will make publicly available later in the year. This information will be presented to the PBC stakeholders at a third workshop for their feedback. The combined feedback will be included as one part in an assessment by technical experts to determine recommended programs. The programmes will be presented to the Transport Agency and a preferred programme then determined. A report will be presented to the Transport Minister on the outcome mid-year.
How do I give my feedback?
There are many ways to share your feedback with us. Go to our Have your say page
What happens after I give my feedback?
After the feedback deadline of 24 April, the NSLI project team will summarise your feedback into a report that we will make publicly available later in the year.
Please note that once a preferred approach has been confirmed, there will be further opportunities to give your feedback if the NSLI proceeds to the next stage. This could happen later this year, depending on the outcomes of the PBC.
Strategic Case FAQs
What is a strategic case?
A Strategic Case is the foundation for the business case process. It does not explore solutions. It focuses on well understood problems that are justify investment. It was the first of four phases of the Nelson Southern Link Investigation (NSLI).
What was the outcome of the Strategic Case?
It identified there was a case for investment and recommended the investigation progress to the next stage – the Programme Business Case.
When will we know if a Nelson Southern Link will be the preferred option?
Work on the PBC will inform the selection of a preferred programme of work, which will include one, or a combination, of options. We expect to consider and then advise the Government on the outcomes of our investigations next year and determine a preferred option afterwards.
Will this investigation work look at broader transport options for Nelson beyond just roading solutions?
Yes, it will do this at the PBC stage, with the Transport Agency working with its key stakeholders on options and clearly outlining funding pathways.
What are the next steps for the project?
As part of our business case process, we will move on to developing the PBC for the investigation project and prepare for public consultation on programmes of work/options.
General FAQs
What is the Nelson Southern Link Investigation?
It’s a piece of work to investigate options for a route connecting the State Highway from Whakatu Drive to QEII Drive. The investigation is part of the Government’s Accelerated Regional Roading Package for State Highway projects, as central and local government have identified projects as regionally important to address economic efficiency, safety and resilience issues. Ensuring an efficient and reliable transport network is vital to Nelson’s export-led economy as it relies on the roading network to transport goods.
What is the purpose of the Accelerated Regional Roading Package?
To support the Government’s focus on improving regional infrastructure to encourage national economic development. The Nelson Southern Link project is part of the $212m Accelerated Regional Roading Package, and is funded from the Future Investment Fund.
Why do we need to look at the Nelson Southern Link again?
As set out in the Accelerated Regional Roading Package for state highway projects the route needs to be investigated fully to ensure the region’s economic efficiency, safety, and resilience issues are addressed. The investigation will help determine whether a project is feasible and whether it will qualify for funding from the National Land Transport Fund (NLTF) or from a non-NLTF funding source, such as Future Investment Fund.
Who has been appointed to carry out the Investigation?
The NZ Transport Agency has appointed AECOM, a professional infrastructure services consultancy to assist it with the investigations and business case development for the investigation work.
What is the timing of the project?
We are currently finalising work to understand the issues the Nelson arterial transport network is facing. We expect to release more information on this before the end of the year and having consultation on potential options to address the identified arterial transport issues next year.
You can find out more details about the process we are following for the project on our indicative programme diagram .
You can also find out more about the Business Case process .
What’s different in this investigation to the work that Nelson City Council has done with the Arterial Transport Study?
This investigation follows the Transport Agency’s business case process. Among other matters, it will include analysis about route resilience, urban design, updated traffic modelling, and environmental impacts.
What would be the potential cost of a Nelson Southern Link project?
If it goes ahead, Government has estimated improving Nelson’s arterial connection between Whakatu Drive and QEII Drive could cost up to $40 – 50 million. However, the current investigation work will help to further clarify potential costs.
What discussions have been held about the investigation so far?
We have had constructive meetings and workshops about the investigation with representatives of different communities within Nelson as well as with other key stakeholders including Nelson City Council, Tasman District Council, the Road Transport Association, AA, Nelson Port and Police.